RESEARCH
National Economic Impact Study
A six-dimension framework measuring the true cost of federal prosecution across the ecosystem it touches: individuals, families, businesses, communities, and government itself.
The Question
What is the total cost of a federal prosecution — not just to the person charged, but to the entire ecosystem the case touches? The National Economic Impact Study builds a defensible answer, one dimension at a time, from the ground up.
Attribution: originally drafted by Nevin Shetty; methodology and data led by Dionne Hutton, with Marly Hornick as collaborator.
How we work
The study is findings-led. We publish only what is one-click sourced — with source, denominator, and counterfactual baseline for every figure. We prefer disclosed ranges over false precision.
We do not publish aggregate dollar figures until the underlying components are locked and independently reviewable. If you have seen a large aggregate number attributed to this study in other places, it should be treated as illustrative only until the corresponding component analysis is on this page with sources attached.
The Six-Dimension Framework
Legal & Financial Costs
Attorneys' fees, expert costs, bail, forfeiture, restitution, and the cash cost of prolonged federal process.
Business & Employment
Lost wages, terminated employment, business closures, lost customer relationships, and lost operating time during investigation and trial.
Individual & Family Harm
Mental and physical health costs, family stability, education outcomes for children, and downstream household impact.
Community Consequences
Local employment loss, reduced civic participation, weakened neighborhood trust, and the destabilization of local institutions.
Government Expenditures
Investigation, prosecution, incarceration, supervision, and appeal costs — measured against outcomes.
Justice-System Externalities
Downstream effects on procedural trust, plea rates, expert-witness markets, and the incentives faced by future defendants.
Cleared Stats
These are the sourced figures we consider safe for public use. All other numbers referenced by the study remain under review until their component analyses are locked.
of federal convictions arrive by guilty plea (U.S. Sentencing Commission).
of federal cases are decided by a jury.
states already permit criminal depositions, including Texas.
meaningful Hyde Amendment fee awards in nearly 29 years.
Methodology in Plain Terms
01 · INPUTS
Voluntary, anonymized responses
Structured intake from people with direct experience of a federal case — including investigations that never resulted in charges. Public-record data supplements the sample, never replaces it.
02 · METHOD
Component-by-component build
Each of the six dimensions is priced with its own source, denominator, and counterfactual baseline. Disclosed ranges over false precision. Nothing rolls up until the underlying component is independently reviewable.
03 · OUTPUT
Findings-led publication
Components publish here as they lock, each with sources attached. Aggregate figures wait until the components that support them are on the page — not before.
Where We Are
The framework is set. Intake is open. The medical subset is furthest along because of the Physicians Track; other component analyses are in build. As each component locks, it appears here with its source list and its counterfactual baseline visible.
Researchers, economists, and practitioners who want to review a specific component in progress can contact the Foundation. Peer review is welcomed at the component level, not on a finished aggregate.
Medical Subset
The study includes a dedicated medical subset built with input from the Physicians Track. It looks at the specific patterns physicians see in federal cases — administrative or coding disputes charged as crimes, extrapolated loss calculations, and the recurring use of the same paid experts across multiple prosecutions.
Physician groups and medical societies can request the medical-subset briefing directly.
Contribute to the study
The study collects voluntary, anonymized responses from people who have direct experience of a federal case — including investigations that never resulted in charges.